Climate change impact on agriculture in African developing countries

Barrios, Ouattara, and Strobl ( 2008 ) studied the impact of clime alteration on the degree of entire agricultural production in African developing states. They concentrated their survey on both Sub-saharan African ( SSA ) and non-Sub-Saharan African ( NSSA ) states. They wanted to make full in the spread of literature concentrated in the African context. Though the agricultural sector in Sub-Saharan Africa amounts to a high per centum of their gross domestic merchandise and swallows most of their employment degree, it has performed instead ill in comparing to other developing states. The writers cited Sachs and Warner ( 1998 ) and Johnson, Evensohn ( 2000 ) , Bloom and Sachs ( 1998 ) , Frisvold and Ingram ( 1995 ) , and Gallup and Sachs ( 2000 ) who claimed that the bad policies, unequal institutional model, decreasing factor gifts, natural geographic conditions and low population denseness did non assist in the economic advancement of the states and may hold negatively impacted on African agribusiness.

However, their chief concern was the clime alteration that had been impacting the continent over the twentieth century. Along with steady addition in temperature around the universe and the lessening in sum of rainfall, the writers claim Africa has been the worst affected continents. Therefore, in order to analyze the possible impact of clime alterations in agricultural production in SSA with regard to other developing states, the writers wrote down a simple production map. The information was sourced from the IPCC and from the FAO on-line database. The map was for any state I at clip T, the agricultural map as a map of a figure of inputs:

Log ( Yit ) = I?1 + I?2 log ( Lit ) + I?3 log ( Ait ) + I?4 log ( Fit ) + I?5 log ( Kit ) + I?6 log ( Mit ) + I?7

log ( Rit ) + I?7 log ( Tit ) + I·t + I?i + Iµit.

The variables used in the equation above are described below:




Agricultural Output















A placeholder for changing effects and factors such as technological advancement and other SSA influences


Unobserved state specific effects

Comparison of the SSA and other developing states over the same period of clip was constrained by the hapless handiness of comparable informations sets. The empirical consequences are explained below.

For the period 1961-1997, the readings resulted in 1276 observations for 40 SSA and 2279 observations for 67 NSSA states. The drumhead statistics are given in Appendix 1. The consequences show that there are a significant differences in the variables employed. The agency of the drumhead statistics for L, K, and F worked out by agricultural country show that NSSA states use these inputs, much more efficaciously than the SSA states. By charting the average values of clime alteration and agricultural production for SSA and NSSA, the writers found that agricultural production had increased for both sets of state groups. However, they besides found that between 1975 and 1985, agricultural production of the NSSA increased proportionately comparative to that of SSA. The graphical representation of average temperature in both SSA and NSSA were on the rise over the studied period of clip, except for a crisp lessening for both state groups in the mid 1970s. In contrast, the graphs for average rainfall show different forms for SSA and NSSA. The NSSA experienced a comparatively stable sum of rainfall whilst SSA experienced a extremum in the sixtiess and subsequent ruin till the 1980s. This consequence corroborates with the agricultural production index for the same period of clip when SSA agribusiness outputs were meagre.

Empirical estimations of the production map for all inputs were statistically important determiners of agricultural end product and had the expected marks. This proved that the theoretical account was strong. The high R2[ 1 ]values indicate that a big sum of the fluctuation in the agricultural production ( dependent variable ) is explained by the explanatory variables. The writers besides found that the coefficient of F was higher for the NSSA states. This may bespeak poorer quality of the SSA inputs. At the same clip, the estimations show that rainfall was a more important determiner for the SSA agribusiness compared to the NSSA. The same can non be said for the estimations for temperature. The writers found the SSA agribusiness was more sensitive to lift in temperatures which led to lessenings in agricultural end product.

Hence, the writers ‘ consequences suggest that climatic alterations have had of import effects on entire agricultural end product on the Sub-saharan African continent, but non in other developing states.

Ringler et Al ( 2010 ) examined the impact of clime alteration on Sub-Saharan Africa, utilizing a Comprehensive Climate Change ( CCC ) scenario. The latter incorporate clime projections from17 GCM[ 2 ]s and considered the GCMs ‘ mean public presentation with respects to their anticipation of temperature and precipitation in SSA. The CCC scenario was generated utilizing a freshly developed entropy-based downscaling theoretical account. It was incorporated into a harvest growing simulation theoretical account and a planetary hydrological theoretical account that is linked with IFPRI[ 3 ]‘s Impact[ 4 ]H2O and nutrient projections theoretical account. This incorporation was in order to measure the deductions of clime alteration for nutrient results in the part.

The impacts of the scenario with clime alteration, that were compared with the historic clime scenario, included higher nutrient monetary values, little alterations in net cereal trade, and alterations in country and output enlargement in Sub-Saharan Africa. .

Cereal production growing in Sub-Saharan Africa was projected to diminish by 3.2 % because of clime alteration, with decrease in output growing of 4.6 % . Among staple harvests, negative output impacts were projected to be largest for wheat, followed by sweet murphy, whilst overall outputs for millet and sorghum are projected to be somewhat higher. By 2050, corn, rice, and wheat monetary values are projected to be 4 % , 7 % , and 15 % higher, severally, compared with the historic clime scenario. Higher nutrient monetary values contribute straight to take down nutrient demand, which declines for Sub-Saharan Africa by 1.5 % by 2050.

Hence, with higher nutrient monetary values in 2050, SSA could good be in more danger than it already is. Agriculture being an of import portion of SSA, the writers have used the CCC scenario to demo the possible impacts of clime alteration on the latter.

Kurukulasuriya et Al. ( 2006 ) measured the economic impact of clime alteration on African agribusiness utilizing informations from a study of more than 9,000 husbandmans across 11 African states. They used a cross-sectional Ricardian theoretical account. Each husbandman was presumed to take the sum of inputs and end products needed to maximize their gross, with regard to the clime, dirt quality and other economic variables.

They observed that grosss dropped with warming for dry land harvests ( temperature snap of -1.9 ) and farm animal ( -5.4 ) . On the other manus, grosss rose for irrigated harvests ( snap of 0.5 ) , which are located in comparatively cooler parts of Africa. At first, warming had low net sum consequence as the additions for irrigated harvests offset the losingss for dryland harvests and farm animal. Warming, nevertheless, would take down dryland farm income well. The concluding effects besides depend on alterations in precipitation, because grosss from all farm types addition with precipitation. Because irrigated farms are less sensitive to climate, where H2O is available, irrigation is a practical version to climate alteration in Africa.

However, a frequent job with the above surveies is the placeholder used for their clime variables. The mean one-year value of precipitation is a hapless step of climatic alteration. It has no meaningful account in a cross-country survey as an mean precipitation in one state is certainly non comparable to an mean precipitation in another state. The 2nd defect that can be held against the majority of old surveies is their methodological attack which is based on the Ricardian theoretical account. The truth of the Ricardian attack in climate sensitiveness remainders on the premise that land value reflects the true value of the agricultural merchandises. This is a really restrictive premise because of the well documented fact ( Deschenes and Greenstone, 2007 ) of authorities intercessions to falsify monetary values in developing states. Therefore, the quality of the informations on monetary value is questionable.

Therefore, although the coefficients on precipitation were often non statistically important, the writers concluded that cyberspace grosss for dry land harvests will increase with more precipitation and lessening when precipitations fall.

Morison ( 1996 ) illustrated a model for analyzing the factors impacting harvest production. He explained how the latter could be extended to more complex theoretical accounts of harvest growing. The conceptual theoretical account used was that of the “ resource gaining control ” theoretical account. The thought of the theoretical account is simple ; harvests and workss turn by capturing solar energy, C dioxide, H2O and other resources over a certain clip period. These resources all depend on the clime and conditions conditions to let for better harvest production. These resources can hence be used and converted into simple equations:


Yield= I· I? Iµ . Si



I· = Harvest index

I? = day-to-day amount over the turning season,

Si = solar radiation intercepted,

I? = continuance that the canopy of foliages intercepts visible radiation,

Iµ = Radiation transition coefficient ( rate at which the workss use the resources to turn ) .

The writer claims that since alterations in temperature rates have a direct impact on the rate of growing, it is clear those alterations in atmospheric force per unit area and climatic conditions will ensue in harvest growing being affected.

However, Morison besides puts frontward some restraints of this harvest theoretical account. The first job is to seek and command the C dioxide ( CO2 ) around the harvest and hence command the environment around the harvest. The writer claims it is expensive to transport out such an experiment. In add-on, the harvest theoretical account investigates a few environmental conditions which may really differ from twelvemonth to twelvemonth. Another restriction is the complex and assortment of factors that would hold to be explored. The multiple arrested development analysis is non plenty and the writer advocates the new simulation methods that are better estimations of harvest analysis relation to climate alteration. At the minute, these theoretical accounts do non run into the realistic standards as they are normally based on a individual field or secret plan graduated table and normally require a elaborate history of temperature alterations. At the same clip, these theoretical accounts need to account for the dirt processes at the agro-ecosystem degree.

Therefore the writer concludes by stating that a harvest theoretical account can merely be the get downing point of an agricultural production and harvest growing anticipation. Further and deeper analysis into land areas, variegation, agro-chemical usage, irrigation, capital, land and labor is required for more accurate consequences.

Wang et Al ( 2008 ) used a Ricardian analysis to demo that planetary heating can hold inauspicious effects on China. The writers studied 8405 families across 28 Chinese states. The overall findings of other surveies were that with warming, harvest outputs in China would follow a similar ruin as those in other developing states. Nevertheless Wang et Al cited Liu et Al ( 2004 ) whose findings were wholly the antonym. In fact, the latter found that with temperatures on the rise, harvest outputs and mean farm cyberspace grosss would increase instead than lessening.

Hence, the writers sourced a information that allowed them to do an econometric analysis the direct impacts of temperature and precipitation on net harvest grosss. The theoretical account was as follows:

V= b0 + b1T + b2T2 + b3P + b4P2 + I? disk jockey Zj + Iµ ( 1 )



V= Net Crop gross per hectare,

T= Vector of Temperature ( four seasons ) ,

P= Vector of Precipitation,

Omega[ 5 ]= Vector of other Control Variables ( county- , village- and household-level socio-economic variables ) .

Different specifications of ( 1 ) , for illustration log of cyberspace grosss, were used to look into for the hardiness of the theoretical account. The consequences showed big differences in temperature between the assorted parts used in the theoretical account. Consequently, this explains the differentiation in net harvest grosss by part. Net harvest gross was higher in the South and E as opposed to the North and the West severally. Such an analysis could hold been implemented in SSA to let for better comparing of harvest grosss between parts and hence happen solutions to break their several state of affairss. The Ricardian arrested development analysis carried out by the writers showed that many of the control variables were extremely important. As for the clime variables, they revealed that at least one clime variable was important in every season, with the exclusion for summer precipitation and autumn in temperature. The fringy impacts of clime variables suggest that greater one-year temperatures led to a minor decrease in net grosss per hectare in China. Higher temperatures were found to be good to rain-fed farms in ice chest climes but harmful to rain-fed farms in heater climes. Furthermore, precipitation was found to be instead profitable ( except in instance of inordinate sum of rain ) .

Therefore, the writers ‘ consequences were similar to consequences from other states as accounted by other writers.

In their article, Antle and Capalbo ( 2001 ) described the empirical and conceptual footing for a figure of economic production theoretical accounts related to site-specific biophysical features. The theoretical accounts can hence be used for farther appraisal and research. Harmonizing to the writers, specific information for specific sites are used to bring forth econometric production theoretical accounts which in bend can be used in a simulation theoretical account to gauge a husbandman ‘s determination devising as to the figure of inputs to be used in production.

Antle and Capalbo pointed out three production patterning attacks:

The first attack uses farm scheduling theoretical accounts to come close optimum resource allotment.

The 2nd type of production modeling has more of an econometric attack whereby, results like net returns, sum of land usage and input-output monetary values can be better explained.

The 3rd attack instead makes usage of econometric theoretical accounts to measure neoclassical production, cost or net incomes.

Hence, harmonizing to the writers the production procedure of an activity J, at a site I, in period T is defined by the goad will be defined as

qijt = fj ( vit, zijt, eit ) ,


Vijt = vector of variable inputs

Zit = vector of allocable quasi-fixed factors of production and other fixed effects,

Eit = vector of biophysical features of the site ( vitamin E can stand for variables like quality of dirts, clime, and topography. )

For case, the above theoretical account could demo that a site-specific output expected by a harvest growing theoretical account could be incorporated as an independent variable and read as a mark of site-specific possible productiveness, or a pest population variable derived from a pest population theoretical account could be included as an option for the husbandman ‘s outlooks about pest force per unit area. Antle and Capalbo besides point out the importance of harvest rotary motions in finding the dirt quality and productiveness. Climate alteration may connote dirt eroding and unfavorable output and the writers believe that patterning some of the procedures can really assist in expecting and get bying with the possible inauspicious effects of clime alteration. In the real-world behavior of husbandmans, in footings of land usage and direction, is greatly spatially variable. In most instances, the behavior is due to spacial variableness in dirt, clime, and economic conditions.

On a concluding note, the theoretical account was able to reiterate the within-sample distributions of land-use determinations, and was besides able to foretell phenomena such as clime alteration and the transition of cropland to a conserving usage.

In their paper, Mestre-Sanchis and Feijoo-Bello ( 2009 ) had the purpose of incorporating clime alteration into determination doing relevant to agriculture. They conducted this survey in response to countries in the EU marginalised due to low productiveness and dependance on economic assistance plans. Their methodological analysis was simple. They made usage of four-block theoretical account ( Appendix 2 ) which allowed them to analyze the general behavior of farms and hence find the best manner to maximize harvest output.

Block I ( Appendix 2 ) depicts the harvest theoretical account and the scenario to be studied. The harvest theoretical account as its name implies is a simulation of harvest outputs on the footing of clime alteration, factors related to dirty and harvest properties. Crop theoretical accounts are cardinal tools towards the projection of the impacts of clime alteration in harvest production. In so making, they used the EPIC[ 6 ]which was designed to imitate biophysical procedures in the dirt and harvest. The writers cited Brown and Rosenberg ( 1997 ) , Brown et Al ( 2000 ) , Cavero et Al ( 2000 ) who widely used the EPIC and besides stated that the latter is frequently used for impact analysis at field, farm and regional degree, with the purpose of gauging short and long-run effects on harvest production. Harmonizing to them, harvest simulation efforts to equilibrate production and ingestion of factors mathematically. Block II ( Appendix 2 ) shows the multi-criteria determination theoretical account in which the production calculated by the harvest simulation theoretical account is used to calculate the net border. The determination theoretical account is restricted by the 6 classs of factors listed in the block ; economic, proficient, political, environmental, H2O and others. Block III ( Appendix 2 ) presents the harvest programs of the assorted scenarios. The harvest plans really assist to recognize the behavioral theoretical accounts for the husbandmans and clime alteration scenarios. Block IV ( Appendix 2 ) demonstrates three of the proposed scenarios[ 7 ]to be studied, on the footing of ample inputs for the harvest simulation and multi-criteria determination theoretical accounts.

After sing the different simulation theoretical accounts for each scenario, the theoretical accounts were solved by obtaining, the husbandmans ‘ portfolio for each instance. The theoretical accounts besides incorporated the most indispensable property values for the factors analysis use in different scenarios. The production obtained by the harvest simulation, with modified clime informations of 2 A- CO2 and with scenarios of diminished H2O handiness utilizing different per centums ( 10 % , 20 % , and 30 % ) has decreased in the merchandises obtained per country unit and, accordingly, reduced the value of net border for the different scenarios in comparing with the mention twelvemonth. In footings of the economic impact of clime alteration, apart from the lessening in net border, the higher costs from the additions of H2O ingestion ratios in relation to the unit of net border were added.

Kumar and Parikh ( 2001 ) investigated the relationship between farm degree net-revenue and clime variables in India. The writers ‘ understanding from old surveies were that higher temperatures could hold negative impacts on harvest outputs while higher rainfall would be advantageous. At the same clip, the consequence known as C fertilization[ 8 ]would besides be a benefit to the harvests. Hence in order to understand how the husbandmans cope and adapt to the assorted climatic conditions around the state, they made usage of cross-sectional informations and ascertained reactions of husbandmans.

The survey made usage of one-year farm-level net gross to gauge the clime response map which was as follows:

R= degree Fahrenheit ( Tj, T2j, Pj, P2j, TjPj, SOIL, CULTIV, BULLOCK, TRACTOR, POPDEN, LITPROP, HYVFR, ALT )


Roentgen is the farm degree net-revenue per hectare,

Tj= normal temperature,

Pj= precipitation,

J= the seasons,

SOIL= the dirt features such as dirt types and top-soil deepness categories,

CULTIV = the figure of agriculturists per hectare,

BULLOCK= bullocks per hectare,

TRACTOR = tractors per hectare,

POPDEN = the population denseness,

LITPROP= the proportion of literate people,

HYVFR= the proportion of country under high giving up assortments ( HYV ) ,

ALT= the height matching to the cross-sectional unit.

The stableness of the estimated clime coefficients in the long tally becomes an of import issue as the purpose was to gauge a long term clime response map. The writers therefore took into consideration two fluctuations of the base theoretical account:

Variant 1- Deviations of each twelvemonth ‘s conditions from the normal clime are added to the list of independent variables of the base theoretical account

Variant 2- Deviations of one-year conditions and one-year harvest monetary values are added to the list of independent variables of the base theoretical account.

The above theoretical accounts were capable to arrested development analysis by pooling out the clip series of transverse sectional observations with intercept silent persons for the old ages. As a consequence, the F-test comparing the theoretical accounts turned into the favor of discrepancy 2 which was the best fitted theoretical account. With farther analysis carried out, it can be seen that all the clime coefficients and some coefficients of conditions and harvest monetary values were important. The estimated clime response map was used to cipher possible impacts due to a ‘best ‘ conjecture clime alteration scenario of a 2 grades celcius temperature addition and a 7 per cent addition in precipitation. For the state as a whole the impacts due to the above scenario are inauspicious with a loss of about 8.4 per cent of the entire net-revenue.

The writers concluded that the impact estimated in their theoretical account was smaller than those estimated by other writers for India. However, the losingss expected from clime alteration would be more for India as opposed to states like USA. Hence, they showed that clime alteration would hold an economic impact on agribusiness.

Mideksa ( 2010 ) studied the impact of clime alteration in Ethiopia with respects to its possible economic and distributional impacts on the state. Agriculture being a extremely climate-sensitive sector and really valuable for Ethiopia, rough climatic conditions might finally harm the state. The writer, in composing this paper, had three chief purposes:

To look into the deductions of clime alteration on GDP of a state extremely dependent on agribusiness.

To measure the impact of clime alteration on income distribution and equality.

To seek and get the better of some of the lacking of the Ricardian attack used by many other writers. The Ricardian method assumes monetary values to be changeless and does non take public assistance of husbandmans into consideration ; which in existent life is really significant.

The paper assume a modeling model exemplified by a multi-sector, multi-product, comparative inactive little unfastened economic system general equilibrium theoretical account of the Ethiopian economic system, with regard to the import supply and the export demand of the remainder of the universe. The chief constituents of the theoretical account are consumer ‘s penchant and production engineering. In order to measure the direct impact of clime alteration on agribusiness, Mideksa argues that it is indispensable to cognize how climate tendencies and forms would alter in different parts of the state. The writer hence studied the projections of some other writers. Mideksa cited Cline ( 2007 ) , Deressa ( 2007 ) and Washington et Al ( 2000 ) who all predicted an addition in temperature of 17 % , 38 % , and 26 % severally. Though they agreed on rise in temperatures, the 3 writers ‘ consequences differed in footings of precipitation. Cline and Deressa forecast that precipitation would fall by 3 % and 35 % severally whilst Washington et al predicted an addition of 12 % . Furthermore, since production sectors being an of import portion of the economic system, Mideksa stated that the frequent drouths in the state has resulted in low production degrees and in dearth. Since merchandises and sectors besides differ on the importance of clime as an input, a clime daze alters the comparative advantage of different sectors in bring forthing different merchandises.

Increasing productiveness in the agricultural sector becomes even more ambitious as temperatures increase, and will depend on technological promotion in the country of drouth immune harvests, improved seeds, improved information entree, and better agriculture patterns.

Greater inequality is damaging for growing and poorness decrease. It may besides fuel struggle and political instability. Thus the writer concludes that, a combination of negative GDP growing and higher inequality originating from clime alteration is more likely to increase poorness in a state already devastated by dearth.

Benhin ( 2008 ) examined the economic impact of expected alterations in clime on harvest agriculture in South Africa. Harmonizing to the writer, perturbations caused by clime alteration in South Africa may hold negative reverberations[ 9 ]on the remainder of the Southern African part. In response to the restrictions[ 10 ]of the Ricardian theoretical account[ 11 ], Benhin incorporated relevant hydrological variables to show a Revised Ricardian theoretical account. This revised theoretical account was hence used to measure the impact of clime alteration on the agricultural sector, with regard to a scope of clime alteration scenarios.

Therefore, Benhin ‘s revised theoretical account was as follows:

V= I?0 + I?1F + I?2F2 + I?3Z + I?4G + I?5W + I?6W2 + I?


V= Net Farm Revenue per Hectare,

F= Vector of clime variables,

Z= The sets of dirt categorization,

G= The set of economic indexs such as market entree and entree to capital,

W= The different beginnings of H2O.

The variable G was non given much attending in order to concentrate more on the extent of the impact of the other variables ( F, Z, W ) . The likeliness of different impacts in the assorted parts of South Africa was non left buttocks. Therefore, the impacts of clime alteration were besides studied across agro-ecological zones and in the nine states of the state. The information was so processed in the STATA statistical and econometric bundle and the theoretical account was capable to the common jobs[ 12 ]of arrested development analysis.

The consequences showed that irrigation played an of import and positive function on harvest grosss in all three sets of theoretical accounts studied- with clime variables merely, clime and dirt variables merely, and clime, dirt and water-related variables. Higher temperatures were found to be holding a negative impact on net harvest grosss for the whole state ( -US $ 50 ) . However, Benhin besides found that higher temperatures in the winter agriculture season would be outlined by positive impacts on harvest grosss ( US $ 191 ) . Higher precipitation during the summer agriculture season would be more profitable than in the winter season ( varies within the scope of US $ 22-175 ) . As for the agro-ecological zones and states, it was found that addition in temperature would hold inauspicious effects merely in the desert and the Northern parts of the state. The consequences for precipitation on the other manus were more confusing. In fact, the latter showed that whilst some agro-ecological parts might profit from higher precipitation, others might endure negatively.

Therefore along with demoing the economic impacts of clime alteration, Benhin worked out a revised Ricardian theoretical account to show the significance of irrigation as good.

Deschenes and Greenstone ( 2006 ) attempted to mensurate the economic impact of clime alteration on US agricultural land on by come closing the consequence of the random year-to-year fluctuation in temperature and precipitation on agricultural net incomes. In making so, they used the Hadley 2 Model which in bend utilizations long term clime alteration anticipations. The writers criticised the production map attack frequently used by other writers by claiming that the estimations from the latter do non accurately reflect the existent alterations in gross on the footing on conditions alteration. The hedonistic attack was besides criticised on its cogency, though it clearly measures the direct consequence of clime alteration on land values.

Hence, Deschenes and Greenstone attempted to gauge the impacts of temperature and precipitation on agricultural net incomes and multiply them by the foreseen alteration in clime to understand the economic deductions of clime alteration on agribusiness. County-level information was compiled on variables like net incomes from agribusiness, production, dirt quality, clime and conditions. Long-run clime alteration anticipations from the Hadley 2 Model suggested that clime alteration would take to a $ 1.3 billion ( 2002 $ ) or 4 % addition in the one-year net incomes. Effectss like temperature modeling and precipitation flexibleness and accommodation to command variables were statistically robust. Furthermore, the paper indicated that the predicted rise in temperature and precipitation will hold practically no consequence on the most of import harvests, for case maize and soya beans.

In add-on to the Hadley 2 Model, the writers re-assessed the hedonistic farm value attack. Their decisions were that the anticipations from the deductions of clime alteration on the value of agricultural land would run from – $ 200 billion ( 2002 $ ) to $ 320 billion. In other words, it would run from -18 % to 29 % , which is considered to be a broader scope than registered in old literature.

The writers concluded that the hedonistic attack was non dependable in this scene and there was much room for extra research in this field.

For our portion, we can see that much of the literature that uses a partial equilibrium attack focuses on agribusiness utilizing the Ricardian attack. Writers like Kurukulasuriya et Al. ( 2006 ) and Wang et Al ( 2008 ) all used the Ricardian attack. Others were in unfavorable judgment of this attack due to some of its restrictions and had recourse to other methods of analyzing the impact of clime alteration on agrcculture. Though some of the Ricardian attack was used in the SSA context, it goes without stating on our portion that we would wish to see the interesting results of other methods and attacks for the SSA part.